(Re)counting the Uncounted. Replication and Contextualisation of Dutch and Belgian Premodern Population Estimates (1350-1800)

Not surprisingly, population size and growth rates are fundamental variables, catalysts moreover, in seminal studies on studies on long-term economic growth and agricultural development and feature prominently in calculations of GDP. Population estimates should therefore be dependable: not in the least for a highly urbanised area of the world, the Low Countries, which facilitated the ‘first modern economy’.

This project replicates four of the most used and most up-to-date population estimates for the Low Countries (the area more or less covered by the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) for the period prior to 1800.

These four studies include:

• The Low Countries at the height of the Burgundian power in the 15th century by W.P. Blockmans, G. Pieters, W. Prevenier, and R.W.M. van Schaïk (Blockmans et al. 1980).
• Provincial estimates for Belgium (1375-1831) by P.M.M. Klep (Klep 1991).
• National estimates for the Netherlands (1500-1900) by the “Wageningen school” – J.A. Faber, H.K. Roessingh, B.H. Slicher van Bath, A.M. van der Woude, and H.J. van Xanten (Faber et al. 1965).
• Provincial estimates (and interpolations) for the Netherlands (1400-1850) by R.F.J. Paping (Paping 2014).

The project reverts to the same primary sources, but for the first time is using the unaggregated village-level data collected in these premodern censuses to produce more accurate and precise population figures. A newly developed GIS dataset of premodern local parish-level boundaries in the Low Countries (https://hdl.handle.net/10622/PGFYTM) acts as a visual control mechanism, much in the same way previous scholars have used lists of villages or their own local knowledge to account for missing areas. A new typology of premodern censuses will improve the quality and comparability of population estimates in the Low Countries. The data will be made freely available for other researchers to use. A part of the data is already available in the  IISH Data Collection: https://datasets.iisg.amsterdam/dataverse/recountingtheuncounted  

• Project lead: Rombert Stapel
• Grant: € 149.884 by NWO (Replication Studies, 3rd round)
• Start: September 2020. The first results will be published the beginning of 2024.

Blockmans, W.P., G. Pieters, W. Prevenier, and R.W.M. van Schaïk. 1980. ‘Tussen Crisis En Welvaart: Sociale Veranderingen 1300-1500’. In Algemene Geschiedenis Der Nederlanden, edited by D.P. Blok, 4:42–86. Haarlem: Fibula-Van Dishoeck.

Faber, J.A., H.K. Roessingh, B.H. Slicher van Bath, A.M. van der Woude, and H.J. van Xanten. 1965. ‘Population Changes and Economic Developments in the Netherlands: A Historical Survey’. In A.A.G. Bijdragen, 12:47–113. Wageningen: Afdeling Agrarische Geschiedenis, Landbouwhogeschool.

Klep, P.M.M. 1991. ‘Population Estimates of Belgium, by Province (1375-1831)’. In Historiens et Populations. Liber Amicorum Étienne Hélin, edited by Société Belge de Démographie, 485–507. Louvain-la-Neuve: Academia.

Paping, R.F.J. 2014. ‘General Dutch Population Development 1400-1850: Cities and Countryside’. In 1st ESHD Conference. Alghero, Italy. http://hdl.handle.net/11370/d057464a-dbb1-4d50-a217-762403c1a3e2.